Trump Coin Faces 40% Crash Risk with $500M Token Unlock Coming

Trump Coin Drops Ahead of Trump’s Birthday

Trump Coin (TRUMP) is sliding down as President Trump’s birthday approaches. The price dropped by 4% today, June 13. Traders pulling out of riskier assets cause a wave of selling pressure, which is followed by the fall. The current geopolitical climate is adding more uncertainty. On top of that, a bearish chart pattern is flashing warning signs. This setup suggests that Trump Coin could crash another 40%, with a large token unlock on the way that might push prices even lower.

Right now, Trump Coin is trading at $9.97. Its daily trading volume stands at $555 million. Liquidations are piling up. Data from CoinGlass shows that $3.97 million worth of long positions have been wiped out. These liquidations are dragging the price down even faster.Source: CoinGlass

The price of Trump Coin is at risk of breaking down. The descending triangle pattern is being used to assess key support. Usually, this arrangement indicates fragility. Sellers have been in charge. However, buyers are beginning to slow down.

Trump Coin has been stable at $9.73 for weeks. That is the most important level of assistance. Right now, though, the coin is on that brink. The triangular pattern indicates that $5.75 is the expected objective if this level is broken. That would indicate a 40% decline from the current price.

There has been a decline in trading volume throughout this formation. The volume bars indicate that there hasn't been any significant conviction from either buyers or sellers thus far. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, is at 37. It is now beginning to slide farther. With additional downward pressure mounting, this suggests that Trump Coin is approaching oversold territory.

The possibility of a bounce is still slim. A few traders might choose to purchase this drop in the hopes of a swift reversal.

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram bars have started turning green, even though they’re still below zero. If the AO crosses above the zero line, Trump Coin could stage a move back up to test the upper resistance of this pattern.

$500 Million Token Unlock Is Coming

Adding more fuel to this bearish setup is a major token unlock event. Data from Tokenomist shows that 50 million TRUMP tokens will be unlocked on July 18. Based on current prices, this unlock is worth around $500 million. Token unlock events often lead to selling pressure, especially with meme coins.

Short sellers are already circling. Many traders believe the price will drop further once these tokens hit the market. More supply with weak demand often leads to lower prices.

What’s also surprising is that the upcoming Trump birthday event on June 14 hasn’t lifted the price. Usually, meme coins linked to Trump see a jump on key dates. But this time, buyers have stayed away. If this trend continues, Trump Coin might miss out on any short-term gains from this event.

Source: X

Open Interest Hits 7-Week Low

There’s also weakness showing up in the derivatives market. Open interest in Trump Coin futures has dropped to a seven-week low. Right now, open interest sits at $357 million, according to Coinglass. This is the lowest reading since late April.

Falling open interest is a sign that traders are not excited about this meme coin anymore. Many of the positions that are open right now seem to be short bets. The funding rate has plunged to -22%, which shows that sellers are dominating. A negative funding rate like this means that short sellers are paying long holders to keep their positions open. It’s a clear sign that traders are leaning bearish.

Trump Coin is facing one of its toughest tests yet. A bearish chart setup is showing a possible 40% drop to $5.75. The $500 million token unlock coming in July could add more selling pressure. Buyers have gone silent ahead of Trump’s birthday, which used to be a bullish event for meme traders.

The short-term picture looks rough for Trump Coin. Long-term predictions for Trump Coin suggest that recovery may happen between 2025 and 2030. For now, traders are bracing for more downside.