Positive Expected Value Strategy for Bitcoin Crash Games

Crash gambling is rapidly gaining traction within the cryptocurrency community, becoming the number one casino game played with Bitcoin. Crash gambling and Bitcoin have a history together, because the game was inspired by the volatile nature of Bitcoin and its market fluctuations, which mirrors the unpredictability with crashes in-game. It was 1st pitched on the bitcoin forum by Eric Springer in 2014, who spent a couple of years developing it and took inspiration from the volatile nature of Bitcoin. Since then, its design has kept evolving and reaching new heights with popularity among players.

For those unfamiliar with the game, crash gambling is a high-stakes, adrenaline-pumping game where players place bets and watch a multiplier increase from 1x upwards. The catch? The game can "crash" at any moment, causing players to lose their bet unless they've cashed out before the crash.

Over the years, countless strategies have been developed by players, but many are complex and difficult for the average user to understand. Recognizing this challenge, we conducted extensive research and experimentation with various strategies that can be applied on different crash gambling games. The result was the discovery of a system that often offers a positive expected value, making it accessible and potentially profitable for a broader audience.

The Strategy

Starting Bet: Begin with a small fraction of a Bitcoin.

Auto Cash Out: Set the auto cash out at 3.00x.

Doubling Down: Each time you lose, double your bet for the next round. If you win, return to the initial bet. If you reach the maximum bet without winning, reset to the initial bet.

Example Walkthrough

To illustrate the strategy, let's go through a few rounds:

Round 1: Bet a small fraction of Bitcoin. The multiplier crashes at 1.4x - you lose. Double the next bet.

Round 2: Bet double the previous amount. The multiplier reaches 3.2x - you win. Start over with the initial bet.

This cycle continues, and over time, even with losses, the winnings can outweigh the losses due to the high multiplier payout.

Handling Consecutive Losses

If you encounter a series of losses, your bets will look like this: small fraction, double it, quadruple it... up to a maximum limit. Once you reach your maximum bet without a win, reset your bet to the initial small fraction even if you lost. For instance:

Round 13: Bet the maximum allowed fraction. The multiplier crashes at 1.21x - you lose. Reset your bet to the initial fraction.

Risk Management Tips

Effective risk management is crucial when engaging in crash gambling. Here are some tips to help you manage your bankroll and minimize losses:

• Set a Budget: Determine how much you are willing to risk and stick to that amount. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.
   
• Use Stop-Loss Limits: Decide in advance the maximum amount you are willing to lose in a session and stop playing once you reach that limit.
   
• Take Breaks: Regular breaks can help you stay focused and avoid impulsive decisions.
   
• Avoid Chasing Losses: If you experience a losing streak, resist the urge to increase your bets in an attempt to recover losses quickly. 

Testing and Results

We tested this strategy over 500 theoretical rounds and consistently generated a profit. For anyone interested in trying this strategy, we recommend starting with demo mode that is always offered on the most popular Bitcoin crash gambling sites, and using small bets initially. 

Note: We haven’t confirmed this strategy with real-money crypto betting, as the algorithm may behave differently with higher stakes. Check the demo your preferred crash gambling site offers, and try it out. Test this strategy and find the game that has the highest odds of positive expected value!

Probability and Payouts

Here are the probabilities and corresponding payouts for each round:

32% - 3x the initial bet

21.76% - 5x the initial bet

14.80% - 9x the initial bet

10.06% - 17x the initial bet

6.84% - 33x the initial bet

4.65% - 65x the initial bet

3.16% - 129x the initial bet

2.15% - 257x the initial bet

1.46% - 513x the initial bet

0.99% - 1025x the initial bet

0.68% - 2049x the initial bet

0.46% - 4097x the initial bet

0.31% - 8193x the initial bet

0.98% - -8191x the initial bet

Final Thoughts

Our strategy relies on the Martingale system which we have adapted to be used in our positive expected value strategy. It's essential to approach this method with caution and to gamble responsibly. Always test with minimal bets to understand the system's impact and to ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance. Calculate the risk and how much you are willing to bet, and what would be your boiling point.

Always keep an eye on new crash gambling sites and how they operate, so you can test out this strategy. Where the site's algorithm or payout structure differs significantly, this strategy won’t work as effectively, so it's crucial to understand the specific mechanics of each platform before committing crypto from your wallet.