Introducing Forecast Markets on Autonity with the AFP Protocol

Introducing Forecast Markets

Clearmatics is bringing something new to the crypto world. It’s called forecast markets. These are decentralized futures products that live entirely on-chain. They’re not limited to just crypto. They can track anything that has time-based data. That means inflation, GDP, or even temperature. It’s a fresh way to think about financial contracts on the blockchain.

These forecast markets will launch on a new blockchain called Autonity. It’s a layer-1 chain. The team also built something called the Autonomous Futures Protocol, or AFP. This protocol supports the creation of these forecast contracts. It will all kick off with an event called Forecastathon. This event is meant to attract developers, traders, and DeFi enthusiasts. They’ll get to build and test new ideas on Autonity.

Forecast markets look a bit like prediction markets. But they work differently. A prediction market pays out once and then ends. Forecast contracts are ongoing. They move in sync with the data they track. This allows people to stay in the market longer. Liquidity can grow over time. That’s something prediction markets don’t offer. Prediction markets are usually about specific events. Forecast markets focus on broader, long-term risks.

Clearmatics says they’re not trying to compete with prediction markets. They believe both can exist side by side. Forecast markets can help manage ongoing risk. Prediction markets can help people trade on narratives. The team sees them as different tools for different needs.

Today, most crypto derivatives are about crypto prices. Perpetual futures dominate the space. But forecast markets can track anything measurable. That’s the key difference. They open the door to new kinds of speculation and hedging. The protocol will support crypto perps later. But for now, the focus is on real-world data and its value.

The team believes this could be a game-changer for quantitative researchers. These are the people who build trading systems using data and algorithms. They now have a chance to test their models in new ways. Forecast markets offer them a way to trade on data that previously had no financial instruments attached. It’s a space for innovation and discovery.

Source: X

A Real-World Example: COE Auctions in Singapore

Stanley Yong from the Autonity Foundation gave a concrete example. In Singapore, car ownership is limited through COE auctions. The prices of used cars go up and down based on these auctions. There’s no current way to hedge against COE price changes. A forecast contract could fix that. Sellers could lock in a price in advance. That’s practical and useful.

Source: X

Autonity and AFP offer a new market structure. They separate trading from clearing. In most DeFi platforms, these happen together. That creates silos. On Autonity, traders can use different venues but still settle and manage collateral on-chain. It makes the system more capital efficient. It also avoids splitting up liquidity across platforms.

Clearmatics questions what it means to be “decentralized.” If you can only trade a product on one venue, is that really decentralized? They don’t think so. On Autonity, you can enter or exit a position through any venue. That’s the kind of freedom they believe should define a decentralized market.

Final Thoughts

Forecast markets open up a new chapter in DeFi. They’re not just for crypto. They’re for any kind of risk that people care about. The idea is to give people tools to hedge, speculate, or build better portfolios. Whether it’s tracking blockchain metrics, economic indicators, or even climate data—these contracts can be built. The tools are open. The market is wide.